Tuesday, November 23, 2010

Guinea Election Update

The Christian Science Monitor has a great article today summing up all things electoral in Guinea - what happened, where things are now, and what might happen on November 26 December 2 when the Guinean Supreme Court is scheduled to announce their decision on the validity of the election results:

"Although it is impossible to be certain, it seems highly improbable that the current results will not stand. This would leave three major paths for the country to follow, once the Supreme Court decision is announced: 1) outbreak of civil war between the two factions. This is the least likely option, as Diallo is unlikely to call his supporters to violence, neither side is armed, and the whole country is wary of war, having hosted refugees from conflicts in Guinea-Bissau, Cote d’Ivoire, Liberia and Sierra Leone; 2) Diallo refuses to concede defeat and his supporters continue to protest, leading to the military deciding to take power permanently, under the guise of restoring calm; and 3) Diallo ultimately concedes the Presidency to Conde, and, after some initial violent protests by UFDG supporters, Guinea launches its first democratic government."

Guess which option I'm rooting for?

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